Standard Chartered analysts project that stablecoins could pull $1 trillion in deposits from emerging market banks by 2028. The forecast assumes dollar-pegged tokens will provide households and companies with accessible USD exposure outside traditional banking systems.
Geoffrey Kendrick and Madhur Jha from Standard Chartered argue that depositors in emerging markets prioritize capital preservation over yield generation. Their analysis suggests adoption will accelerate despite the GENIUS Act prohibiting U.S.-compliant stablecoin issuers from paying direct interest to holders.
The bank estimates current stablecoin savings in emerging markets at $173 billion, which could surge to $1.22 trillion within three years. This shift represents approximately 2% of aggregate deposits in high‑vulnerability countries, including Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Turkey, India and Kenya.
Two‑thirds of existing stablecoin supply already functions as savings in emerging market accounts, according to the research. Standard Chartered projects the global stablecoin market will reach $2 trillion by end‑2028, a figure the U.S. Treasury has referenced in policy discussions.
Venezuela demonstrates this banking‑to‑stablecoin transition, where annual inflation between 200% and 300% has driven citizens toward USDT and USDC. Merchants widely denominate prices in stablecoins, locally termed “Binance dollars,” as the bolivar's value has collapsed amid hyperinflation.
Chainalysis data shows Venezuela ranked 13th in crypto adoption with 110% usage growth throughout 2024. Crypto accounted for 9% of the $5.4 billion in remittances sent to Venezuela in 2023, with small businesses and major retailers accepting digital assets through various platforms.
Brazil and Argentina are following similar patterns, with Fireblocks reporting that stablecoins comprise 60% of crypto transactions in both countries. Businesses increasingly accept USDC and USDT as inflation erodes local currency purchasing power.
Standard Chartered notes the exodus could pressure correspondent banking, payments, and foreign exchange revenues. However, banks might offset losses by custodying reserves for issuers or embedding stablecoins into treasury and cross‑border settlement infrastructure.
The stablecoin sector's total capitalization recently surpassed $300 billion for the first time, led by Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC. This growth trajectory must accelerate significantly to fulfill Standard Chartered's trillion‑dollar projection by 2028.