Arthur Hayes, one of the founders of BitMEX, says that Bitcoin’s usual four‑year price cycle is no longer useful. According to him, the current bull market could last much longer because of loose monetary policy.
His opinion goes against long‑held beliefs in crypto markets and changes the story from mechanical timing to macro‑driven momentum.
Hayes Fires the Four-Year Cycle Myth: Liquid Money Is King
In a new essay titled “Long Live the King!” published recently on his Substack, Hayes claimed that many traders have been wrongly applying a rigid four‑year template to Bitcoin’s cycles, even with the global monetary environment changing.
According to him, past peaks coincided with tightening in dollar and yuan credit, not just halving schedules. He also suggested that current conditions are dissimilar enough to break the pattern.
The crypto entrepreneur pointed to the U.S. Treasury’s decision to issue more Treasury bills and drain about $2.5 trillion from the Fed’s Reverse Repo program as a backdoor liquidity injection into markets. Further, he highlighted that the Federal Reserve has resumed cutting interest rates, despite inflation still above target, and that two cuts later this year are now priced in by futures markets.
In criticizing cycle devotees, Hayes called out the blind application of historical rhythm, saying: “traders wish to apply the pattern … without understanding why it worked in the past.” The market watcher maintained that the interplay of money quantity and cost, primarily in USD and yuan, remains the real driver.
Reactions in the market have been mixed. Some analysts, like Raoul Paul, continue to see echoes of past cycle structure, even suggesting they may become more extended. Others are more cautious: veteran trader Peter Brandt warns that if Bitcoin breaks from the four‑year cycle, it may provoke “dramatic” price action.
Historical Context, Counterarguments, and What Lies Ahead
To understand Hayes’s thesis, one must revisit the three full Bitcoin cycles to date. In the 2009–2013 phase, excessive credit growth from the U.S. and China reversed, choking off momentum for a while.
During 2013–2017, Hayes ascribes much of the boom to China’s credit expansion rather than pure USD flows, and the subsequent deceleration precipitated the decline. The COVID era also saw torrents of USD liquidity overwhelm Chinese restraint, with that too ending when the Fed began tightening in late 2021, with BTC peaking in April that year.
The former BitMEX executive now argues that the next phase is different: while China may not be the primary engine, its pivot away from deflation may act as a floor for global credit dynamics and remove a key counterbalance to U.S. liquidity. In his eyes, the world is entering a regime in which cheaper money and greater supply can fuel further upside in Bitcoin.
That said, skeptics point out that economic risks such as recession, banking stress, and inflation overshoot might upend the liquidity narrative.