Expert Views on Bitcoin's Current Trajectory
Bitcoin's recent dip below $100,000, marking its lowest point since June, has understandably raised concerns among cryptocurrency investors. However, two prominent market figures are presenting a more optimistic outlook regarding Bitcoin's future price movements.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise's chief investment officer, suggests that the current downturn is indicative of peak retail capitulation rather than the onset of a more severe collapse. "Crypto retail is in max desperation," he stated in an interview on CNBC's Crypto World. "We’ve seen leverage blowouts... the market for sort of crypto native retail is just more depressed than I’ve ever seen it."
Hougan further observed that numerous indicators point towards the sell-off approaching its exhaustion phase. "When I go out and speak to institutions or financial advisers, they’re still excited to allocate to an asset class that if you pan back and look over the course of a year, is still delivering very strong returns," he commented.
He anticipates that once the retail selling pressure subsides, increased institutional demand could propel prices upward. "I think Bitcoin could easily end the year at new all-time highs," Hougan predicted, estimating a potential range between $125,000 and $130,000.
Arthur Hayes Predicts "Stealth QE" Driven Rally
Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, has identified structural liquidity as a critical factor for the next rally. In a recent essay, he argued that the United States government's increasing reliance on debt issuance will inevitably compel the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet.
Hayes characterized this scenario as "stealth QE," where the Federal Reserve injects liquidity into the financial system via its Standing Repo Facility to support Treasury financing.
Quantitative easing (QE) is a monetary policy tool used by central banks to stimulate an economy by acquiring financial assets, such as government bonds, thereby increasing the money supply.
"If the Fed’s balance sheet grows, that is dollar liquidity positive, and ultimately pumps the price of Bitcoin and other cryptos," Hayes wrote. He believes this cycle of escalating government borrowing and understated liquidity creation will "reignite the Bitcoin bull market."
Bitcoin Enters Bear Market Territory
In a recent post on X, The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource from Mosaic Asset, stated that Bitcoin (BTC) has officially entered bear market territory. This classification follows a decline of over 20% from its record high on October 6.
Other traders have also issued warnings about potential further price declines in the cryptocurrency market. Investor Ted Pillows described the market as being in "free fall," forecasting a possible retest of the $92,000 CME gap should the $100,000 level fail to hold.