Apple is on track to ship more iPhones this year than ever before, according to new predictions from research company IDC. The tech giant's strong performance is largely attributed to the high demand for its newest phone models and a significant comeback in the crucial Chinese market.
Projected iPhone Shipments and Growth
IDC forecasts that Apple will ship 247.4 million iPhones in 2025. This represents a 6% increase from the previous year and is expected to surpass the company's previous record of 236 million units, which was set in 2021 with the iPhone 13.
Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, identified the "phenomenal success of its latest iPhone 17 series" as the primary driver for this growth. She specifically highlighted the "massive demand for iPhone 17" in China, which has substantially boosted Apple's performance in that region.
Shipments refer to the number of devices manufacturers send to their retail partners, including online and physical stores. While these figures do not represent exact sales numbers, they provide a strong indicator of a company's anticipated demand.
China Market Rebound
IDC's latest analysis indicates that Apple's shipments in China are projected to increase by 17% in the final three months of 2025 compared to the same period last year. This surge is significant enough to prompt IDC to revise its forecast for China's overall smartphone market. The research firm now anticipates 3% growth for the year, a notable shift from their earlier prediction of a 1% decline.
Potential to Overtake Samsung
IDC's optimistic outlook for Apple is shared by other industry observers. Last week, Cryptopolitan reported that Counterpoint Research also predicted Apple would ship more smartphones than Samsung in 2025, a milestone that has not been achieved in 14 years.
However, potential challenges lie ahead. IDC suggests that Apple might delay the release of the basic version of its next iPhone model, the iPhone 18, until 2027. Such a delay would disrupt Apple's typical annual release schedule, which usually sees all new models launched in the fall. IDC estimates that this potential delay could lead to a 4.2% drop in shipments in the following year.
Financial Performance and Outlook
Apple's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report in October exceeded analyst expectations, and the company provided a strong outlook for its December quarter. CEO Tim Cook informed CNBC's Steve Kovach that revenue is expected to rise by at least 10%. Cook stated, "We expect total company revenue to grow by 10 to 12% year over year, we expect iPhone revenue to grow double digits, year over year, and we expect that that would make the December quarter the best ever in the history of the company."
Analysts surveyed by LSEG had projected December quarter sales of $132.31 billion and earnings per share of $2.53. Apple's guidance surpasses these figures; if revenue grows by 11% over the previous year's December quarter, the period would generate $137.97 billion.
Cook attributed the company's confidence in these projections to the positive customer reception of the iPhone 17 devices, describing the response as "off the chart." He further elaborated, "We look at the results to date, the reception of the consumer on the very strong iPhone lineup. We’re looking at traffic in our stores, which is up significantly year on year. We see enthusiasm around the world."
Net income for the quarter reached $27.46 billion, a significant increase compared to $14.29 billion in the same period last year, although the prior year's figure was impacted by a one-time tax charge.
For Apple's fiscal year 2025, total revenue amounted to $416 billion, marking a 6% increase over 2024. Sales in the September quarter also saw an 8% rise from the previous year.