Andreessen Horowitz Downplays Immediate Quantum Threats to Crypto
Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto team highlighted that concerns about immediate quantum threats to blockchains are overstated. They state that transitions to post-quantum measures should be planned and staged. This position counters the prevalent urgency in moving towards quantum-resistant strategies.
Led by Justin Thaler, a16z's research suggests a measured approach to quantum security. Thaler argues that cryptographically relevant quantum computers are unlikely to emerge soon, advising against rushed migrations to post-quantum cryptography. A significant emphasis was on Thaler's statement:
"We are nowhere near a cryptographically relevant quantum computer by any reasonable reading of public milestones and resource estimates."
Gradual Quantum Threats to Bitcoin and Ethereum
Thaler's analysis posits that quantum threats to major blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum will be gradual rather than sudden. This challenges the narrative for immediate action, impacting how the crypto community views security upgrades.
The research calls for a cautious adoption of quantum-resistant measures, emphasizing current hardware constraints and notes that bugs and governance issues present more immediate risks, urging the community to avoid premature implementation of immature technologies.
Past Algorithm Transitions Highlight Slower Crypto Changes
Thaler cites the slow phasing out of algorithms such as SHA-1 as a precedent, contending that even with actual vulnerabilities, protocol changes take time. This historical reference supports his stance against rushed adoption of post-quantum cryptography.
Experts from Andreessen Horowitz emphasize a long-term view, highlighting that while the quantum threat is valid, the expected technological progress does not justify hastened transitions. They advocate for careful planning based on realistic assessments of hardware advancements.