Key Takeaways
- •Analysts see the recent Bitcoin dip as a setup for a rebound.
- •Tom Lee expects a new all-time high as early as January.
- •Policy decisions from the Fed and BOJ may trigger a final dip before recovery.
Among those taking the contrarian side of the debate is Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who thinks the market is far closer to a fresh record than sentiment suggests. He argues that the recent sell-off hasn’t derailed the broader trend at all and that traders may look back on this phase as a temporary “policy shock” rather than a structural peak.
January Becomes the Month to Watch
Lee isn’t expecting fireworks in December. Instead, he sees January as the first realistic window for Bitcoin to topple its previous high near $125,000. In his forecast, the next milestone above $100,000 could arrive even before the general market regains confidence.
Lee ties the turbulence of late November to global monetary signals rather than weakness in Bitcoin itself. The combination of hawkish commentary from the Bank of Japan and worries about tighter financial conditions weighed heavily on risk assets — crypto included.
Why the Fed Chair Race Matters
The next major catalyst, however, is not on the chart — it’s political. Prediction platform Kalshi shows mounting odds that Kevin Hassett could be tapped to replace Jerome Powell as head of the Federal Reserve. Hassett has indicated willingness to take the position if nominated, and markets have interpreted his stance as a sign of friendlier conditions for risk and digital assets.
A Fed under Hassett is widely expected to favor quicker rate cuts and softer liquidity constraints. For Bitcoin, that typically translates into renewed capital inflows, stronger risk appetite, and aggressive upside speculation.
An Unexpected Pattern Gains Attention
While Lee focuses on macro dynamics, Benjamin Cowen highlights something completely different — an historical price rhythm that emerged from the interaction between Fed and Bank of Japan policy moves. He notes that in July 2024 Bitcoin plunged when the Fed eased while the BOJ tightened, then bottomed one week later before igniting a strong rebound.
Cowen believes December could replay the same setup. If the Fed cuts rates again on December 10 while the BOJ tightens, he expects a temporary flush followed by a January recovery — not a continuation of the downtrend.
A Market in Transition — Not Collapse
Not every analyst shares the optimism. Peter Brandt recently warned that fears surrounding the sell-off could drag Bitcoin toward $58,000 before momentum returns. Yet across the contrasting views, one thread stands out: most major market observers believe that the macro cycle itself remains bullish.
The competing forecasts — a statistical price pattern, a policy-driven thesis, and a political catalyst — all converge on the same timeline: the most important part of the bull market may not be behind us but directly ahead, with January positioned as the first major test of that theory.
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