Altcoins are currently experiencing a bear market that has lasted for nearly four years, marking the longest period of decline in their history. However, according to renowned crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe, this prolonged downturn is on the verge of a significant shift.
A Market Tailored for the Bold
Van de Poppe characterized the current period as "the longest bear market ever." He noted that despite widespread skepticism, the altcoin market is poised for a substantial rebound.
He emphasized that the current cycle is fundamentally "completely different" from previous ones, cautioning against drawing direct comparisons based solely on duration.
Van de Poppe explained that achieving exceptional returns, such as a 1,000% increase in investment portfolios, requires investors to make bold decisions and embrace high risks. This level of success is attainable by only a very small fraction of market participants, estimated to be around 0.1%. He described the current situation as "the last easy cycle" for the crypto market, given the ongoing acceleration of adoption, the presence of many undervalued assets, and the continuous influx of new investors into the ecosystem.
A Shift in the Altcoin Cycle
From a technical analysis standpoint, Van de Poppe's assessment centers on the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and monthly price divergence. The MACD has exhibited continuous red bars since late 2021 but is approaching a crossover into positive territory, which signals a potential trend reversal. Furthermore, a persistent monthly bullish divergence has been in place for two years, with the red bars nearing a transition to green. This suggests that an upswing for altcoins could begin consolidating in the upcoming weeks.
Van de Poppe advises investors to concentrate on high-quality or blue-chip altcoins. He recommends holding these assets for extended periods to capitalize on returns as market confidence gradually recovers. A crucial point of caution is that the current market environment necessitates smart decision-making and selective strategies, as not all investors are guaranteed to benefit from this potential rebound.
The technical outlook is supported by signals from other platforms, which indicate widespread capitulation and asset prices trading below their fair value. Historically, these conditions are strong indicators of significant upcoming rebounds. Although altcoins have endured a prolonged cycle of declines, the combination of increasing adoption, undervaluation, and favorable technical signals could herald the commencement of a new bullish cycle.