Crypto analyst Chad Steingraber has issued a new warning to XRP investors, arguing that the current pace of institutional accumulation is only a preview of what could happen once the full lineup of major asset managers enters the market.
According to his analysis, the math behind projected ETF inflows points to an unavoidable conclusion: XRP’s price will have to rise significantly to prevent large-scale supply absorption.
Current Inflows Are “Small Numbers” Compared to What’s Coming
Steingraber emphasized that the recent ETF activity, already responsible for notable price reactions, is occurring while only a small number of XRP funds are live. He noted that the market has witnessed measurable inflows from just a few ETFs, yet the price has reacted sharply in real-time, proving how sensitive supply conditions currently are.
The analyst argues that the industry is still at the very beginning of the institutional adoption cycle. More funds are expected, and the number could expand to seven, twelve, or even twenty issuers. In his view, this expansion is inevitable, with heavyweight players such as BlackRock and VanEck expected to compete aggressively for assets under management.
These are just small numbers quoted below, based on what we’ve all seen happen in real-time. They’re not made up.
What happens when we are full throttle? Because it’s not just two funds, it’s going to be 7, then 12, then maybe 20 or more. What does a MAX SPEED set of numbers…
The “Max Speed” Scenario: How Much XRP Could ETFs Absorb?
To demonstrate the long-term supply implications, Steingraber calculated a scenario that assumes XRP remains priced at $2.20 and only 15 medium-sized funds participate.
In his model, each of the 15 funds averages 10 million XRP in net daily flows, a number that accounts for both inflows and outflows. Under these conditions, one fund would absorb 10 million XRP per day, and fifteen funds would collectively purchase 150 million XRP daily.
Extending this model outward over various timeframes shows how quickly supply could tighten: One week of trading would absorb 750 million XRP. A full month would amount to 3 billion XRP. Over one year, the total climbs to 36 billion XRP, and after two years, ETFs could collectively acquire as much as 72 billion XRP.
Steingraber says these figures are not theoretical fabrications but extrapolations based on inflow behavior already witnessed in the market.
XRP Must Reach a Much Higher Price to Slow Demand
Steingraber argues that as ETF participation scales, the market will face a simple economic reality: institutional demand at this magnitude cannot be met at current price levels.
If accumulation remains strong, the available liquid supply will tighten until the price adjusts high enough to slow institutional inflows. His conclusion is direct: The price of XRP must rise substantially to reduce the speed of accumulation into asset managers.
He also warns that institutions will not wait for supply to be nearly exhausted before driving the market higher. Instead, rising competition among funds will accelerate the race to secure liquidity early.
XRP’s Long-Term Outlook Becomes a Structural Supply Game
Steingraber’s analysis positions XRP’s future less as a speculative trend and more as a structural liquidity equation. With more ETFs pending, several institutional “juggernauts” preparing to enter, and early inflows already showing outsized price impact, the analyst believes XRP could face one of the most aggressive supply squeezes in the digital asset sector.
If ETF growth matches his projections, XRP’s price ceiling may be determined not by sentiment, but by institutional math.