A hush has settled over parts of the crypto market — the kind that comes before people start checking calendars more than charts. Traders don’t buy hopes; they buy anticipated mechanics.
Over the next two quarters, those mechanics line up in a way that has many observers leaning forward, curious whether what’s often discussed in theory will finally play out in price action.
The timeline attracting attention was flagged publicly by {x} (@unknowDLT), and his comment has acted as a focal point for analysts piecing together how scheduled supply, product launches, and institutional demand could intersect.
While a single post isn’t destiny, it serves as a useful prompt to outline the concrete factors that matter and why these calendar windows — Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 — are being closely watched.
All eyes on Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. It will be huge for XRP. It's all coming together for an XRP supply shock.
Be patient and enjoy the process.
We are very close.— {x} (@unknowDLT) October 7, 2025
Supply mechanics explained
XRP’s supply dynamics are unusually transparent and mechanical. Monthly escrow releases, known in advance, introduce a predictable flow of tokens into the market. Historically, Ripple has sometimes re-locked portions of those releases, effectively reducing net monthly supply.
This duality — scheduled issuance plus active re-locking — creates a scenario where small shifts in behavior can yield outsized effects on available circulating XRP. For holders, the key is not the headline number but how much of that supply remains tradable versus re-reserved.
Potential demand catalysts
On the demand side, institutional channels are the obvious wild card. If large‑scale fund products, ETFs, or custodial solutions that include XRP gain traction in late 2025 and early 2026, they could soak up the circulating supply quickly.
Furthermore, new product rollouts within the Ripple ecosystem, particularly those that increase on‑chain utility or stablecoin‑related settlement flows, would layer additional use‑case‑driven demand onto any institutional purchases.
Risks and moderating factors
A tightening thesis is only as strong as its assumptions. Re‑lock rates could increase, exchange custody behavior can change, and ETF flows may proceed more slowly than optimistic models expect.
Regulatory or macro shocks could also divert capital away from altcoins even during pockets of supply compression. Pragmatic holders should thus treat the supply‑shock narrative as conditional, not guaranteed.
What holders should monitor now
Keep an eye on the first‑of‑month escrow dates, public statements about institutional product approvals, and on‑chain signals such as re‑locks and exchange inflows. Those datapoints will tell you whether the theoretical squeeze is taking shape or if it remains an attractive but speculative scenario.
Final thought
Market turning points rarely arrive quietly or perfectly; they’re built from many small decisions and disclosed events. The dates highlighted by {x} deserve attention because they coincide with a rare alignment of supply mechanics and possible demand surges. For disciplined holders, that alignment is worth watching — patiently, and with a clear checklist.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in‑depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.