Probabilities of Market Scenarios
According to Egrag, the probability of XRP undergoing a flush-out before resuming its uptrend sits at around 70%. He views this outcome as more favorable than the alternative, which he assigns a 30% likelihood.
In the less probable scenario, XRP could surge immediately, but he warns that such a move would risk a sharp correction. From his perspective, a more measured decline followed by recovery would create a stronger base for growth.
The Role of the Fair Value Gap
Central to his analysis is the concept of the fair value gap (FVG), which he identifies between $2.35 and $2.40. Egrag argues that markets often return to these gaps as part of a process known as mean reversion, where prices align back to their average or fair value.
In this case, the FVG acts as both a target and a potential support zone. He highlights that once this range is filled, it could serve as a foundation for a more aggressive upward move, establishing a stronger market structure.
Time Frame Considerations
Egrag bases his current outlook on the three-day chart, a time frame he consistently uses for long-term clarity while still accounting for short-term volatility. He recalls a previous gap that took 129 days to fill, drawing a parallel to the present setup.
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While not providing a specific timeline for the upcoming move, he notes that if the pattern repeats, the market could be approaching an important turning point by mid‑November.
Key Levels and Expectations
In terms of price levels, the analyst identifies $2.65 as a near‑term area to monitor. If that point holds, it could suggest the market has found temporary stability. However, his preferred scenario is for XRP to dip further into the $2.30 to $2.40 zone before initiating what he refers to as the final leg upward. He stresses that this potential flush would not weaken the asset’s long‑term trajectory but would instead reinforce its structural integrity.
Egrag Crypto’s perspective maintains a cautiously optimistic tone, balancing the short‑term possibility of a deeper correction with the longer‑term potential for significant gains. By focusing on the fair value gap as both a technical target and a structural support, his analysis emphasizes sustainability over immediate price surges.