Analyst: The Market Got Ahead of Itself. XRP Price Correction Isn’t Done Yet

Crypto trader and analyst CasiTrades has provided a detailed update on XRP’s near-term price structure, emphasizing that the recent upward reaction in the market does not imply that the corrective phase has concluded.

The move higher following news of the Mastercard partnership led to a brief test of the upper boundary of the projected subwave structure, with the price reaching approximately $2.41. However, this level did not hold, and the rejection that followed reinforced the analysis that the correction remains in progress.

CasiTrades notes that although the price temporarily reached the highest reasonable extension for subwave four, the candle closes did not break below the previous Wave 1 low. This detail is key in maintaining the broader Elliott Wave count that has been guiding the ongoing correction. Holding that boundary keeps the corrective roadmap viable and mirrors the expectation shared in earlier commentary.

Expected Retest Toward $2.05 Support Zone

According to the update, the decline associated with Wave 3 bottoming near $2.05 requires further confirmation. CasiTrades expects the price to return to that region to complete subwave five of Wave 3.

The next anticipated move would involve price reaching back toward the $2.36 area in a larger Wave 4 retracement once the subwave five leg finds support. After that retracement, one more downward push in a final Wave 5 is anticipated, setting up an environment where a double-bottom pattern could form near the same support zone.

The primary scenario being tracked suggests that the macro 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level around $2.05 is likely to represent the final low of the correction. An alternative scenario in which price retraces deeper toward the 0.618 Fibonacci level remains possible but currently appears less probable based on the evolving subwave structure.

RSI Structure Supports the Wave Count

In addition to price action, CasiTrades highlights the relative strength index as a supporting factor in the analysis. A clear bearish divergence formed at the recent local high, suggesting weakening momentum.

The RSI pattern appears positioned for a retest of its lower trendline, which would align with price revisiting the $2.05 level. This confluence strengthens the expectation that the corrective move is not yet complete and still requires a return to key support.

CasiTrades reiterates that nothing in the current trend structure invalidates the corrective framework previously discussed. The brief move higher reflected market reaction to a news event rather than a structural breakout. With the Wave 3 low still requiring further testing, the correction is expected to continue before a more sustained trend shift occurs.