Analyst Says Bitcoin’s Peak Still Ahead as Proven Data Model Flashes Signal

Market analyst Joao Wedson believes Bitcoin could soon break into uncharted territory, citing Alphractal’s “Max Intersect SMA Model” as evidence that the current rally isn’t over yet.

A Model With History

Wedson’s thesis rests on a simple but powerful observation: the same statistical pattern that marked Bitcoin’s peaks in 2017 and 2021 is emerging again. The model analyzes intersections between specific long-term moving averages to identify exhaustion points in each cycle.

“The signal hasn’t triggered yet,” Wedson explained, suggesting that the top of this cycle remains ahead. “The last time the model aligned, Bitcoin climbed from $60,000 toward $62,000. If we reach the $68,000 zone, that’s when things could turn parabolic.”

The analyst insists the pattern isn’t coincidence. “It’s a repeatable, data-based structure,” he said, framing it as quantitative validation rather than speculation.

Sentiment, Liquidity, and Patience

Wedson argues that traders often overemphasize macroeconomic indicators such as central bank policy or yield curves when assessing crypto markets. These, he said, can misrepresent Bitcoin’s internal rhythm. Instead, he describes the current price environment as a “distribution stage” – a phase when liquidity builds as both bulls and bears test the market’s limits before a decisive breakout.

“Sideways movement is frustrating but necessary,” he explained. “Markets use it to reset leverage and gather strength.”

Targeting the Next Milestone

Wedson’s data-driven forecast places Bitcoin’s potential apex between $143,000 and $146,000 – a level he describes as the “statistical ideal” within the current four-year cycle. That estimate, he said, is not based on narrative hype or sentiment, but on mathematical recurrence observed across previous bull markets.

Still, he cautioned that the easy phase of accumulation is long gone. “The risk-reward profile isn’t what it was in 2022,” Wedson said, adding that many long-term holders now hesitate to sell, which could lead to sharper volatility before the final run-up.

The Road to Confirmation

Whether the model’s signal triggers another historic move remains to be seen. But as Bitcoin flirts with the upper-$60,000 range, Wedson’s framework is gaining attention among traders searching for a data-backed roadmap in an increasingly emotional market.

If the pattern holds true again, the next surge could mark the final chapter of this cycle – and potentially set Bitcoin’s price well beyond its previous all-time high.