Market analyst and Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen has stated that he anticipates Bitcoin (BTC) will continue its downward trend before entering its next bullish phase.
In a conversation with Scott Melker, host of TheStreet Roundtable, Cowen characterized the current market environment as a "slow bleed." He suggested that the cryptocurrency might remain within a defined range until macroeconomic liquidity improves.
"I do think Bitcoin will go back to $110k. I just don't think it's going to happen right now. I think we're kind of in a slow bleed right now, waiting for liquidity. So yeah, if it wants to prove me wrong, I think we need to rally back over the 50-week moving average," Cowen stated.
Cowen further explained that Bitcoin would need to reclaim significant technical levels to validate a broader market reversal. He specifically highlighted that "two to three weekly closes above the 50-week moving average" would cause him to re-evaluate his bearish outlook.
Cowen also mentioned that he maintains a partial allocation to BTC to mitigate the impact of emotional trading decisions.
“If we get a counter-trend rally, let’s say to $100K… by owning some, I’m not completely sidelined,” he said. “It helps calm the emotions — to not be 100% deterministic about any one idea.”
2026 Could Mark the Next Market Bottom
Instead of focusing on specific price targets, Cowen indicated that his strategy for purchasing Bitcoin during market downturns is time-based, aligning with the cryptocurrency's historical four-year cycle.
He described Bitcoin's "winning strategy" as buying near the end of the midterm year and selling during the fourth quarter of the post-halving year. This pattern has been observed across the last three market cycles.
“If you bought it at the end of 2014 and sold in Q4 2017, then bought at the end of 2018 and sold at the end of 2021, you would’ve made the most money,” Cowen elaborated.
He believes this logic remains applicable to the current cycle, suggesting that the next accumulation period could occur in late 2026.
Cowen opted against providing explicit price predictions, citing the criticism analysts often receive when their forecasts are even slightly inaccurate.
“Price predictions are really, really hard because...if it's $1 too high, everyone will hate you because they were waiting on that. If you predict it too low, people will sell and then they'll hate you because they continue to rally beyond it,” he explained.
Consequently, Cowen concentrates on market direction and overarching liquidity trends.
“Right now, the wind is blowing more in the bearish direction, but by Q4 [2026], I think the winds will change.”
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading near $93,080.84.