Analyst Predicts 244% XRP Surge Based on This Model

EGRAG’s Gaussian Channel Projection

In his latest analysis, EGRAG assessed XRP’s long-term trajectory through the lens of the Gaussian Channel, a technical tool often used to identify price trends and potential reversals.

He compared the current market structure to XRP’s performance during the 2017–2018 bull run, when the token rose by roughly 3,700%, reaching around $0.39 before entering a consolidation phase.

By contrast, EGRAG noted that XRP has advanced by only about 370% in the current cycle, a fraction of its previous rally. He then applied the same ratio observed in 2017’s final surge, when XRP jumped 2,440% to hit $3.30. Based on that relationship, his model suggests a potential range between $5.50 and $6.00 this time around.

EGRAG also rejected the popular “diminishing returns” argument that claims each cycle produces smaller percentage gains. He highlighted XRP’s 1,700% rise during the 2021 cycle, which occurred despite regulatory pressure from the SEC lawsuit and an overall bearish market mood.

He contends that advancements in technology and growing global adoption make larger gains feasible once again. According to his calculations, repeating the 2021 rally could push XRP above $5 in the coming months.

Diminishing Bear Market Losses

EGRAG further pointed to a pattern of shrinking losses in XRP’s historical downtrends, describing it as evidence of long-term market maturity. The first major downturn saw a 96% fall from the top, while the next dropped by 86%, showing a gradual 10% improvement. If the pattern holds, the next decline could limit losses to around 76%.

This pattern also allows EGRAG to estimate potential bottoms for future cycles. If XRP reaches $5–$6 at the top of the current run, he predicts the next market low could form between $1.20 and $1.40.

Even in a less bullish scenario where XRP peaks near $3.65, he believes a correction toward $0.87 would still align with this trend. Investors who accumulated below $0.50, he noted, remain well-positioned regardless of near-term fluctuations.

Other analysts share EGRAG’s optimism about XRP’s long-term outlook but anticipate short-term weakness. DustyBC, for example, believes the asset may first complete a corrective phase before beginning a major third wave upward.

His chart analysis places XRP between $2.00 and $2.40 to finalize the second wave before resuming its broader uptrend.

Similarly, Casi Trades has identified nearby support and resistance zones that could guide XRP’s next move. After rejecting resistance around $2.68, XRP turned slightly bearish, with Casi noting support levels at $2.42, $2.03, and $1.65.

A close below $2.42, she warned, could extend the decline toward $1.65, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. However, she believes this pullback would likely mark the end of the correction and prepare the asset for a sustained breakout to new highs.

While the short-term picture for XRP remains mixed, EGRAG’s Gaussian Channel analysis presents a strong case for further gains, potentially lifting the asset above $5 if historical patterns persist.

Though other analysts expect a temporary dip before the next upward move, the consensus remains that XRP’s broader structure continues to strengthen, signaling room for a significant rally before this cycle concludes.