Crypto-treasury stocks have been sliding ever since JPMorgan warned that companies holding large amounts of digital assets, including MicroStrategy, could be removed from the MSCI index. Cantor Fitzgerald has slashed its price target for Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, which is one of the most popular Bitcoin stocks. MicroStrategy is widely viewed as the most popular Bitcoin stock because the company holds more Bitcoin on its balance sheet than any other public firm, with over 650,000 BTC worth $60 billion.
Its share price moves almost entirely with Bitcoin, making it a de-facto "leveraged BTC proxy" for stock-market investors who want Bitcoin exposure without buying crypto directly. Saylor’s aggressive accumulation strategy and public promotion of Bitcoin have made MSTR the flagship Wall Street vehicle for BTC exposure.
Analyst Cuts 12-Month Target by 60%
Analysts at Cantor warned of near-term volatility as institutional selling pressures mount. But despite cutting its outlook by 60%, the firm insists that investors’ biggest fear of forced Bitcoin liquidations is “not warranted.” Cantor cut its 12-month target to $229 from $560, according to an analyst note seen by the Financial Times. The reduction comes as Strategy’s stock has dramatically underperformed the crypto market, falling 28% in the past month and 32% year-to-date. The stock trades near $186, far below Cantor’s previous target and well under its 2024 highs.
Cantor Fitzgerald is a major Wall Street investment bank and financial services firm founded in 1945. It specializes in institutional brokerage, investment banking, fixed-income trading, and market research. Cantor is also a significant investor in Strategy (MSTR), ranking as the company’s ninth-largest shareholder.
Cantor Stands by ‘Buy’ Rating
Even after slashing the target by more than half, Cantor kept its “buy” rating unchanged, telling clients that the market has become overly fearful about the company’s liquidity and index-removal risk. “MSTR Will Be Forced to Sell Their Bitcoin. MSTR has enough cash to fund dividends for 21 months, and its BTC position, worth $60.7bn, compares to debt notional of $8.2bn, none of which matures until 2028. Also, MSTR can still raise cash through equity facilities should it be needed. Absent a 90% pullback from current BTC levels, This Fear is Not Warranted,” an analyst shared with FT.
Cantor is telling investors MicroStrategy is not anywhere close to being forced to sell its Bitcoin, because it has enough cash to keep paying dividends for nearly two years. The company’s Bitcoin holdings ($60.7B) massively outweigh its debt ($8.2B), and none of that debt comes due until 2028, so there is no near-term repayment pressure. Even if needed, MicroStrategy can raise more cash by issuing new shares, so only a catastrophic 90% crash in Bitcoin would create real liquidation risk, which is why Cantor says this fear “is not warranted.”
MicroStrategy raises money by issuing new stock and low-interest debt, then uses almost all of it to buy Bitcoin. Its stock trades like a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle, often at a premium to the value of the BTC it holds. The software business still exists, but the company is now essentially a Bitcoin accumulation and holding company.
MSCI Index Removal Still a Major Overhang
One concern Cantor couldn’t fully dismiss is the possibility that Strategy could be removed from major indices such as the MSCI USA Index, which recently proposed barring companies whose digital asset holdings exceed 50% of their total assets. Strategy’s entire business strategy — raising equity to buy Bitcoin — makes it the highest-profile target of such rules. Cantor called this risk “somewhat warranted,” noting that if enacted, it could trigger “forced selling of MSTR,” a scenario that could temporarily push the stock even lower. Still, the firm said this would be a “near-term flow headwind,” not a catastrophic event.
Analyst Predicts Bitcoin is on Track to Overtake Gold
In one of the boldest statements in the note, Cantor told clients that Bitcoin could soon eclipse gold’s global market cap. “We continue to believe that we are not far away from Bitcoin overtaking Gold’s market cap,” analysts wrote. Bitcoin’s market cap is currently just 6.1% of gold’s. To surpass it, Cantor said BTC would need to reach $1,577,860 per coin. But BTC has work to do. Year-to-date, gold is up 58%, while Bitcoin is down 1.5%, according to TradingView data.
Why MSTR Stock Keeps Lagging
While Bitcoin has spent months consolidating near all-time highs, Strategy’s stock has been hit by:
- •Institutional selling: Over $5 billion in institutional outflows in Q3 2025
- •Fears of index removal
- •Concerns about leverage and future equity dilution
- •Collapse of the mNAV premium, now near 1:1 with its Bitcoin holdings
For years, Strategy traded at a large premium above the value of its BTC reserves. That premium has now effectively evaporated.