At a Pivotal Moment
The Bitcoin bull market now hinges on the $100,000 mark. In his latest commentary, prominent trader Roman warns that a drop below six figures would spell the end of this uptrend.
After peaking above $125,000, Bitcoin has already retraced about 15%, heading toward the $100K area. Roman argues that surrendering this zone would confirm a trend reversal. He notes that Bitcoin has already lost the $112,000 support and is now under pressure between $98,000 and $100,000.
Conflicting RSI Signals
Traders are closely monitoring the RSI on daily charts. On longer timeframes, signs of exhaustion emerge, with bearish divergences forming near highs. Roman also flags weak volume during those highs—a red flag in bull markets.
Yet, shorter timeframes are throwing a lifeline: a bullish RSI divergence is forming, which historically can presage a recovery or new leg up. For many, this is offering hope that Bitcoin may yet regain upward momentum.
The $100K Zone: Danger or Opportunity?
While some dread losing this support, others see the $100K zone as a compelling buy zone. Trader ZYN has asserted that if Bitcoin holds here, a fresh all-time high could materialize within 4–6 weeks.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe takes a longer view. He argues that Bitcoin has exited its short-term uptrend and now views $102,000 – $104,000 as a better accumulation range for those playing the long game.
Side Pressures: Whales, Holidays & ETF Flows
Bitcoin’s current test comes amid added friction. Dormant whale wallets are stirring—some moving coins, others even converting BTC into ETH. That injects supply pressure into the market.
Meanwhile, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have cooled. And reduced trading activity—due in part to U.S. holidays and Wall Street closures—has given sellers an edge.
Macro Risks & Market Sentiment
Beyond crypto-sector dynamics, macro forces complicate things. Investors are digesting mixed signals from U.S. politics and the Federal Reserve. Comments around tariffs and Fed appointments have stoked uncertainty.
Equity markets have also softened (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq), further dampening risk-on sentiment in crypto. Yet, there’s a silver lining: many expect the Fed to begin cutting interest rates by late Q3 or October, which could reignite appetite for assets like Bitcoin.
What Comes Next?
The bull market is teetering on a knife’s edge. A breakdown below $100,000 could mark the end of this cycle. But if buyers defend it, we might see new highs in short order.
The direction will likely hinge on whether RSI divergences shift toward recovery and if whales slow their selling. Add to that macro uncertainty, soft ETF inflows, and large holders exerting pressure—and you have a highly unpredictable market.
Still, for many traders, $100,000 isn’t a point of defeat—it’s the ultimate test of whether this cycle continues or ends.
Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only. Crypto markets are volatile. Do your own research and risk assessments before making any decisions.