Bearish Outlook for Bitcoin
Jon Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn and an Elliott Wave analyst, has projected that Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 or even lower, signaling the end of the bull market that began in early 2023. This forecast suggests a potential decline of approximately 35% from current levels, which hover around $108,000.
Glover's analysis comes in the wake of Bitcoin's recent dip from $126,000 down to $104,000. He interprets this movement as confirmation that the anticipated five-wave upward structure has now concluded. The analyst anticipates that the upcoming bear market is likely to persist until at least late 2026.
The analyst stated his firm belief that the upward trend has concluded and that prices will likely trade within the range of $70,000 to $80,000, with the possibility of further declines. While he acknowledges that a retest of record highs around $124,000, or slightly above, cannot be entirely discounted, he maintains that the broader market trend has shifted to bearish.
Understanding Elliott Wave Theory
Elliott Wave Theory, first introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, is a technical analysis tool that suggests collective investor psychology moves in predictable cycles. These cycles are characterized by specific patterns, including five-wave structures in the direction of the main trend, which are composed of three impulse waves and two corrective waves.
Bitcoin's Bullish Pattern and Recent Developments
Bitcoin's bullish five-wave pattern commenced in late 2022 when its price was below $20,000. The fifth wave of this pattern reached its peak above $126,000 earlier this month. This peak fell short of Glover's initial projection, made in early August, which anticipated a year-end price between $140,000 and $150,000.
Momentum began to stall beyond the $125,000 mark this month. Warnings were issued that repeated failures to sustain levels above $125,000 would weaken the bull case for Bitcoin. According to Glover's analysis, the subsequent drop to $105,000 last week served as confirmation of an early end to the current bull run.
Glover declared the bull run officially over after Bitcoin broke below the $108,000 level. His assessment considers two potential future paths for the market: one scenario suggests a rise to $145,000, while another indicates that the market may have already experienced its highs for this particular cycle.
Historical Patterns and Market Sentiment
The current bearish outlook aligns with Bitcoin's historical behavior, which has typically seen peaks occurring approximately 18 months after each halving event, followed by the commencement of bear markets. The most recent halving event took place in April 2024, placing the current market timing within this historically observed window.
Supporting this bearish sentiment, data from Amberdata indicates that Bitcoin's Deribit-listed put options are trading at a premium compared to call options through the September 2026 expiry. Put options are financial instruments that provide downside protection. Their premium pricing suggests that traders are actively positioning for extended downside risks well into next year.