A crypto analyst has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) is tracing a historic pattern last seen in the S&P 500 before a massive 200% jump.
This comparison points to a potential, though not yet certain, launch into a period of exponential growth for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
A Historical Blueprint for a Bull Run
In a detailed analysis, CrediBULL Crypto drew parallels between Bitcoin’s current price action and the S&P 500’s behavior between 2000 and 2008. The expert noted that both markets experienced mid-cycle tops characterized by extended periods of consolidation without a dramatic peak, called “flat corrections,” before starting the next major upward move.
Following these phases, the S&P 500 suffered a 61% drop, while Bitcoin saw a 76% decline, before each started its final, explosive rally. CrediBULL now says that BTC is at a stage similar to where the S&P 500 was just before it went parabolic, which was followed by a 200% price increase.
“On the SPX, just before we went parabolic, we saw a 37% correction to the downside. Which was immediately followed by new ATH and a 200+% rally off the lows to where we are today,” wrote the technician.
This optimistic outlook is coming at a time when the OG crypto is trying to find stability, currently trading around $92,000 after a difficult month that saw it fall over 14%. The comparison offers a counter-narrative to the bearish sentiment prevailing in the market, suggesting the recent downturn may be a typical, though sharp, correction within a larger bull cycle rather than its end.
CrediBULL insisted that a break of a short-term ascending trend line does not signify a breakdown in overall market structure, cautioning that traders who exited the S&P 500 on a similar technical break missed the huge rally that followed.
For Bitcoin, the trader highlighted $74,000 as the line that truly matters, telling one follower that the “trend line isn’t relevant – 74k is.” Until then, they see BTC “hugging” its main trendline rather than starting the vertical part of the move.
Market Sentiment and Diverging Views
The analyst community is divided on BTC’s immediate future. While the historical pattern offers a hopeful framework, other experts have pointed to lingering headwinds. One of them, Axel Bitblaze, observed that Bitcoin’s recent decline is quite similar to a pattern from early 2025, which ended in a final sharp shakeout. According to him, rising Japanese bond yields and liquidity issues at smaller U.S. banks could serve as potential catalysts for another downturn.
The market is also witnessing a flight of retail investors, with data from November 19 showing that small Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP wallets have been reducing their holdings, a behavior that, ironically, has often happened just before market recoveries.
Ultimately, the debate centers on whether Bitcoin is completing a final bearish shakeout or is on the cusp of a historic breakout. CrediBULL argues that the cryptocurrency, being a younger and faster-moving asset, could replicate the S&P’s parabolic move in a much shorter timeframe.