Bitcoin (BTC) has broken out of the downward trend it has been experiencing since mid‑August and experienced a massive surge in just one week.
Bitcoin, which rose from $110,000 to $124,000 in a short time, broke a new record by exceeding $125,000 over the weekend.
QCP Capital, a cryptocurrency platform that draws attention with its analyses and predictions, pointed to retail investors as the reason for this rise in Bitcoin.
QCP analysts attributed the rise in BTC to the interest of small investors other than institutional investors, saying, “BTC continued its record‑breaking rise by rising above 125,000, this time without institutional support.”
Analysts stated that demand for Bitcoin is strong and that there was no major selling wave after the recent rise.
Analysts added that this suggests that big whales have completed their selling and are expecting further increases in October.
Whales aren't selling, but leveraged investors are very active long. BTC‑PERP funding rates on major exchanges are high at 35% on Deribit and 29% on Hyperliquid, indicating aggressive positioning.
However, when perpetual options reached this level, approximately $3 billion of long positions were liquidated two weeks ago. This creates an excellent entry point for institutions but also increases the risk of a flash crash.
At this point, investors should be cautious given previous crashes.
Analysts also noted that BTC could continue its upward trend, driven by strong retail demand and safe‑haven buying following the US government shutdown.
Analysts noted that the US government shutdown coincided with the historically bullish seasonality of October, and that this could provide the necessary momentum for BTC's continued rise.
However, analysts noted that Bitcoin's continued rise is dependent on institutional flows and leveraged positions.
“Ultimately, institutional flows and macro conditions will decide whether BTC’s October rally turns into another parabolic leg or turns into consolidation.”
*This is not investment advice.