Bitcoin’s total circulating supply has officially surpassed 95% of its predetermined 21 million hard cap. This significant milestone, established nearly 17 years ago when creator Satoshi Nakamoto mined the genesis block on January 3, 2009, signifies a new phase for the cryptocurrency. With 19.95 million Bitcoin now in circulation, only 2.05 million remain to be mined.
Thomas Perfumo, a global economist at Kraken, highlighted the importance of this milestone within the Bitcoin narrative. He stated that with the annual supply inflation now around 0.8% per annum, a credible scarcity narrative is essential for people to confidently adopt Bitcoin as a store of value.
“Bitcoin uniquely combines its functionality as a global, real-time and permissionless settlement protocol with the certainty of authenticity and scarcity you’d expect from a masterpiece like the Mona Lisa.”
Perfumo further commented that this milestone serves as a powerful reminder of Bitcoin's inherent resistance to debasement and intervention, continuing to operate precisely as designed almost two decades later.
95% Bitcoin Supply Issued Won't Alone Drive Price Increases
While the principle of limited supply suggests that scarcity, coupled with increasing demand, should naturally drive up the value of each Bitcoin, experts believe this milestone alone is unlikely to trigger an immediate market surge. Jake Kennis, a senior research analyst at Nansen, noted that the event primarily validates Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative and underscores the long-term holding strategies of core holders and institutional investors.
Kennis explained that the remaining 5% of Bitcoin will take well over a century to be fully mined due to the programmatic halving events. He stated, "While increased scarcity can psychologically support prices, this particular milestone is more of a narrative event than a direct price catalyst."
He added, "The real story isn’t the 95% number itself, but Bitcoin's supply schedule working exactly as designed; it is predictable and scarce in an era of unlimited fiat money printing."
Based on the current block discovery rate and the halving process, which occurs approximately every four years, the final Bitcoin is projected to be mined around the year 2140.
Supply Milestone Signifies Bitcoin's Maturity
Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of RedStone, also views the 95% milestone as unlikely to be an immediate price catalyst. He pointed out that Bitcoin's supply dynamics are widely understood, and new tokens have been gradually released and absorbed by the market over the past decade.
However, Kazmierczak emphasized that the milestone highlights the significance of scarcity for Bitcoin's long-term value. He suggested that greater focus should be placed on the scaling of supporting infrastructure to accommodate future institutional integration.
"What matters more is macroeconomic context, adoption trends, and regulatory clarity than hitting an arbitrary percentage threshold," Kazmierczak stated.
“The real inflection points were earlier in the supply curve. What this does represent is Bitcoin’s maturity—we’re moving from a growth-phase asset toward one with fixed, predictable long-term scarcity. That’s valuable for institutional adoption, but it’s not a market-moving event in itself.”
Miners Face Evolving Economic Landscape
While a price spike may not be imminent, Kennis indicated that the diminishing supply is likely to intensify pressure on miners. These miners are already contending with the reduced block rewards resulting from the April 2024 halving, which lowered the reward per block to 3.125 Bitcoin.
"Miners are already feeling the impact of reduced block rewards from halvings, most recently in 2024, forcing them to rely increasingly on transaction fees for profitability," Kennis observed.
“The 95% milestone underscores this long-term transition, potentially pushing out less efficient miners while the network hash rate typically recovers quickly.”
Kazmierczak echoed this sentiment, noting that as supply growth decelerates significantly, the economics of mining will undergo a fundamental transformation.
"We’re transitioning from block reward-dependent miners to transaction-fee-dependent miners. This creates pressure on miners to consolidate or seek efficiency gains," he concluded.