Bitcoin has fallen more than 22% in one month, casting doubt on its momentum. Yet, behind this pullback, several signals converge towards a possible return to the symbolic threshold of $112,000. While markets are restless, institutional and retail investors watch four key factors likely to revive the bullish trend. In a context of macroeconomic uncertainty and tension in derivative markets, the scenario of a rebound can no longer be ruled out.
In Brief
- •Bitcoin has lost over 22% in 30 days, but a rebound towards $112,000 remains possible according to several signals.
- •Macroeconomic factors such as inflation, Fed rates and U.S. fiscal policy could create a favorable environment.
- •The bond market, via the TIPS ETF, shows expectations of rising inflation, often correlated with a BTC price increase.
- •Bitcoin’s development by 2026 will depend on a fragile balance between macroeconomic signals and confidence in the crypto ecosystem.
The Four Levers of a Potential Rebound
While the flagship asset breaks above $86,000 despite a strong dollar, Bitcoin’s return beyond $112,000 could primarily rely on global inflationary dynamics and possible shifts in U.S. monetary policy.
A key indicator cited in the analysis is the iShares TIPS ETF, which tracks U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds. This asset has resumed its upward trajectory after testing a technical support at 110.50.
Four factors could give Bitcoin fresh momentum. These levers are macroeconomic, technical, and structural alike:
- •Interest rates and monetary policy: the Federal Reserve maintaining benchmark rates above 3.5% until 2026, anticipated by markets at 78%, contributes to a low real interest rate environment that could favor adoption of alternative assets like Bitcoin.
- •Inflation and the bond market: the iShares TIPS Bond ETF, reflecting inflation expectations, shows a recovery. This could signal a favorable environment for the rise of risky assets.
- •A convergence with traditional markets: potential inclusion of Bitcoin-exposed companies in broader stock indices, especially via MSCI adjustments, could open the way to increased institutional investments.
- •Asymmetry in derivative markets: the options market shows strong imbalance favoring put options, which Julius Baer calls an "excess of bearish hedging". Correcting this asymmetry could trigger a bullish move, especially approaching the December expiry.
These signals, though still uncertain, reveal a favorable dynamic if the four factors converge.
A Bullish Scenario Slowed by Market Caution
Beyond macroeconomic considerations, internal developments within the Bitcoin ecosystem could also play a decisive role in price dynamics.
One major uncertainty concerns the position of MSCI, one of the most followed indices by global passive funds. In October, MSCI launched a consultation among investors on the opportunity to exclude from its indices some companies heavily exposed to Bitcoin, notably MicroStrategy (MSTR).
This decision, expected on January 15, 2026, could impact nearly $9 billion of passive exposure. Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MSTR, reacted by stating: "MicroStrategy is not a fund, nor a trust, nor a holding company. We are a publicly listed company with $500 million in software activity and a unique cash strategy."
Meanwhile, the derivatives market signals a clear lack of trader confidence. Thus, put options on BTC currently trade with a 10% premium compared to equivalent call options.
This imbalance is interpreted as persistent pressure on market sentiment. An easing of this imbalance towards a premium of 5% or less would be necessary to consider a return of optimism. Added to this is the imminent expiration of $22.6 billion of BTC options scheduled for December 26, an event that could provoke significant volatility or serve as a catalyst for a new accumulation phase.
The Bitcoin price oscillates between macroeconomic uncertainty and hopes for a technical recovery. While signals remain mixed, the coming weeks will be decisive in assessing the solidity of a potential rebound towards $112,000. Caution remains warranted across the market.