Spot Bitcoin ETFs have just recorded their second‑best historical week, with $3.24 billion in net inflows. This spectacular resurgence of interest occurs amidst an still uncertain economic climate, but rekindles hope for a dynamic fourth quarter for the crypto market. Far from a mere rebound, these massive flows reflect a clear reversal in institutional investors’ sentiment, on the eve of an October historically favorable to Bitcoin.
In Brief
- •Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.24 billion in net inflows in one week, their second‑best historical performance.
- •This rebound follows a week of massive outflows and is explained by a sudden change in investor sentiment.
- •The prospect of a rate cut by the Fed boosts appetite for risky assets, directly benefiting Bitcoin.
- •Uptober, historically a bullish month for BTC, starts on a good note with supportive technical indicators.
Record Inflows and a Sharp Sentiment Reversal
While many analysts predict a historic year‑end for the flagship asset, spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the United States recorded $3.24 billion in net inflows last week, according to data compiled by SoSoValue.
This figure follows a previous week marked by withdrawals of $902 million, illustrating a sharp turnaround in flow dynamics. It is the second‑best week in terms of net inflows since the launch of these products, just behind the $3.38 billion reached at the end of November 2024.
Iliya Kalchev, analyst at Nexo, explains this sharp recovery by a change in investor mood: “a new anticipation of interest rate cuts in the United States triggered a sentiment shift, attracting renewed demand for Bitcoin ETFs.”
This massive flow occurs while bitcoin trades near key technical levels, where absorption by ETFs intensifies as selling pressure from long‑term holders eases. Kalchev highlights that this situation helps build a stronger base for the asset. According to his projections, if the current momentum continues, the market could see:
- •More than 100,000 BTC removed from circulation during the fourth quarter;
- •More than double the volume of new BTC issued through mining;
- •A mechanical scarcity effect reinforced by the decline in floating supply;
- •A stronger correlation between ETF inflows and BTC price action.
These factors reinforce the thesis that Bitcoin ETFs have now become the main barometer of institutional sentiment in the crypto sector.
Between Bullish Seasonality and Macroeconomic Expectations
Beyond the raw figures, this bullish dynamic fits into a broader context, that of Uptober, a month historically favorable for bitcoin. According to CoinGlass data, October shows average monthly returns close to 20 %, ranking second among the best months for BTC, behind November.
This well‑known seasonality fuels analysts’ optimism for a strong early‑quarter rally, driven both by inflows into ETFs and by an economic environment perceived as more accommodative.
“Uptober shows clear signs of a breakout at the start of the fourth quarter, fueled by ETF flows, seasonal strength, and more flexible macroeconomic conditions,” says Kalchev.
However, momentum could be tempered by several key events expected in the coming days. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and the publication of the latest FOMC meeting decisions could alter market expectations.
Adding to this is uncertainty linked to the release of the monthly employment report in the United States, which now depends on the duration of the ongoing government shutdown. These factors weigh on short‑term readability and could, either way, reinforce or break the current momentum.