Hyperliquid, one of the fastest-growing perpetuals DEXs, is heading into a critical weekend as 9.92 million HYPE tokens unlock on Saturday in a single cliff release. The allocation represents 2.66 percent of the token’s total supply and is valued at roughly 314 million dollars. Tokenomist data shows the unlock is the largest scheduled for the week, placing intense scrutiny on Hyperliquid’s tokenomics and community communication. An X user named Andy published an open letter urging the team to clarify how core contributor tokens will be handled. The token trades around 31 dollars, down 23 percent over the past month. Andy wrote that allowing the team and airdrop recipients to sell without guidance would “ruffle feathers” and referenced the broader market’s “PTSD” from earlier VC-backed token collapses. The concerns highlight a recurring issue in crypto markets: large unlocks create uncertainty even if teams do not plan to sell.
Investor Takeaway
Why Traders Expect Sell Pressure Despite Team Assurances
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes weighed in with a blunt assessment: sell pressure is unavoidable. He said insider promises not to sell carry little weight because there is nothing preventing contributors from liquidating after the unlock. “Even if the team pinky swears to not sell, there is nothing holding them to that. So you have to assume a greater-than-zero amount of daily sell pressure,” Hayes wrote. He also pointed to a sharp decline in Hyperliquid’s price-to-fully diluted valuation (FDV) ratio since July. According to Hayes, traders have already begun pricing in dilution risk. He argued that Hyperliquid must continue growing revenue at a faster pace than supply expansion to maintain valuation strength. The warning split the community. Some holders echoed the call for transparency, saying the team should communicate before the event. Others argued that Hyperliquid has no obligation beyond disclosing unlock schedules and that contributors have “earned” their tokens. One user criticized the open letter as “desperation” and insisted that demanding more communication amounted to “borrowed conviction.”
How Is Hyperliquid Performing Amid the Market Slump?
Despite the uneasy mood around token supply, perpetual DEX activity remains robust. November daily volumes across the perpetuals sector ranged from 28 billion to 60 billion dollars, according to DefiLlama. The top four platforms — Lighter, Aster, Hyperliquid and edgeX — generated more than 1 trillion dollars in combined activity over the past 30 days:
- •Lighter: 300 billion dollars
- •Aster: 289 billion dollars
- •Hyperliquid: 259 billion dollars
- •edgeX: 177 billion dollars
Hyperliquid ranked third, maintaining strong market share even as crypto prices drifted lower. High on-chain derivatives activity suggests traders are actively hedging ahead of the unlock.
Investor Takeaway
What’s Next for HYPE Holders and the Hyperliquid Ecosystem?
The Saturday unlock will be a defining moment for Hyperliquid’s tokenomics. Several scenarios may unfold:
- •Moderate selling: Contributors sell a portion of unlocked tokens, creating short-term pressure but not overwhelming liquidity.
- •Minimal selling: If contributors hold, the event becomes a sentiment reset rather than a market shock.
- •Aggressive selling: Heavy liquidation could trigger cascading impacts across perps markets, especially given HYPE’s concentrated holder base.
The market’s reaction will depend largely on weekend liquidity conditions and the team’s communication strategy. With community expectations now elevated, even silence may be read negatively. Still, Hyperliquid’s operational metrics remain strong, suggesting fundamentals may outshine the tokenomics noise over the longer term.