Bitcoin's long-term holders have quietly offloaded nearly 300,000 BTC, worth around $33 billion, since July 2025, according to on-chain data shared by market analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera. This massive rotation, largely absorbed by ETFs and corporate treasuries, marks what the expert is calling the most significant structural shift in Bitcoin’s ownership since the asset’s inception.
The Great Wealth Transfer
According to Perera’s analysis, shared on his Substack The 100,000 Question, long-term holders, wallets that haven’t been used for more than 155 days, have been selling BTC to institutions through private deals and ETF setups instead of public exchanges. The result is a silent but sweeping transfer of wealth.
BlackRock and Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin ETFs now control about 1.4 million BTC, representing $139 billion in assets under management. After a $2.9 billion outflow in October, inflows returned sharply in early November, with $300 million entering the market within 72 hours.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas contextualized the turbulence on November 11, noting that the $2.7 billion in outflows this past month equaled just 1.5% of total ETF assets, evidence that 98.5% of holdings remain steady.
Despite the scale of selling, Perera stated that BTC has exhibited stability, trading between $95,000 and $106,000 with volatility dropping to 35%, nearly half its historical average, while unrealized losses remain minimal at 3.1%. These trends indicate that institutions, not retail traders, are anchoring the flagship cryptocurrency’s price behavior.
A New Market Reality Emerges
This fundamental change in ownership is rendering traditional Bitcoin cycle theory obsolete. The post-halving period, which historically produced returns exceeding 150%, has yielded only a 41% increase this time.
According to Perera, the reason is structural: the standing bid from ETFs and corporate treasuries like Strategy, which now holds more than 641,000 BTC, has prevented the deep drawdowns that characterized previous market cycles.
The community is divided on what comes next. Some analysts point to persistent resistance, with an assessment from XWIN Research Japan revealing that, despite bullish news, a “wall” between $107,000 and $118,000 has been difficult to break due to ongoing long-term holder distribution.
Looking at the market, after reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in early October, BTC corrected and is now changing hands near $104,500. It is down roughly 8% over the past 30 days but remains up 18% for the year.
According to Perera’s analysis, a sustained hold above $100,000, backed by consistent institutional inflows, could pave the way for the next leg upward, while a break below could test the next major support level near $88,500.