3 Key Factors That Will Shape Internet Computer (ICP) Price Before 2026

Internet Computer (ICP) price is trading around $3.50 after reclaiming the $2.92 level at the end of October. Trading volume saw an increase of over 20%, indicating renewed buying interest around the $2.80–$2.90 price range.

The price attempted to break above $3.15, but encountered selling pressure that pushed it back down. Concurrently, sentiment surrounding Layer-1 cryptocurrencies improved following significant volatility in October. This renewed focus on decentralized hosting solutions, like ICP, was further amplified by recent cloud service outages.

The market is currently assessing the future direction of ICP, with questions arising about whether it will experience a breakout or continue its sideways movement.

The following are the primary forces expected to influence ICP's price trajectory throughout the current quarter.

Subnet Scaling and AI Integration

An upgrade to ICP's subnet architecture in August 2025 is set to double the replicated state capacity to 2 TiB. This enhancement is crucial for enabling the deployment of larger applications and more complex smart contracts directly on-chain.

The introduction of the new Caffeine tool simplifies the development of AI applications on-chain, removing the need for traditional coding expertise and significantly easing the development process.

Increased utilization of subnets directly contributes to computation burns, which in turn reduces the circulating supply of ICP over time. These advancements collectively build a more scalable infrastructure for decentralized finance (DeFi), artificial intelligence (AI), and enterprise-grade platforms.

DeFi Competition and Cloud Outages

Solana's high throughput, consistently near 1,000 transactions per second (TPS), continues to attract developers seeking cost-effective blockspace, creating competitive pressure for ICP as it expands its DeFi offerings. Recent service disruptions at major cloud providers like AWS and Microsoft Azure have highlighted the inherent fragility of centralized cloud infrastructure.

These events have reignited interest in decentralized cloud models. ICP stands to benefit from this narrative, although widespread adoption will ultimately depend on its ability to demonstrate superior performance and enterprise-level reliability.

Whale Accumulation vs. Weak Sentiment

Analysis of wallet activity during the third quarter of 2025 reveals that wallets holding between 1,000 and 1 million ICP tokens increased their positions by approximately 2% of the total supply. This accumulation trend suggests growing confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the project.

However, broader market sentiment remains cautious. The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 35, indicating a state of fear, while Bitcoin's dominance exceeds 59%. Capital continues to flow towards lower-risk assets, which consequently limits the momentum for significant altcoin breakouts.

ICP Price Short-Term Outlook

For ICP to confirm a bullish continuation, it must successfully break through the $3.15 resistance level, which currently acts as a key barrier. If buyers manage to achieve this breakout, the ICP price could potentially retest the $3.50 mark and possibly target $4.00 later in the fourth quarter.

Conversely, a failure to break out would likely keep the market in a consolidation phase, increasing the risk of another dip towards $2.97 or even $2.80. The growth in subnet activity and the adoption of Caffeine are anticipated to be the primary catalysts that will determine the price's direction.

At present, ICP is maintaining its current trading range, awaiting the next significant catalyst.