Key takeaways:
- •Bitcoin’s price discovery reached its strongest weekly close at $123,400.
- •On‑chain metrics and futures data show sustained bullish control above $122,000.
- •Short‑term outlooks are split between a momentum grind higher or a mean‑reversion dip.
Bitcoin (BTC) achieved its strongest weekly close ever at $123,500 on Sunday, confirming its entry into a new phase of price discovery. As it consolidated near its all‑time high (ATH) at $125,800, three key on‑chain and derivative metrics highlighted the health and sustainability of the bullish trend.
Bulls control Bitcoin’s structural momentum near $123,000
Bitcoin’s structural momentum remains decisively bullish. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that BTC’s price remained pressed against the upper boundary of the 21‑day “Donchian” channel ($125,200). At the same time, the structure shift composite stays elevated at +0.73, an indicator of buyer dominance and controlled pullbacks. The ongoing battle around the $125,000 ATH could determine whether the market extends higher or pauses for consolidation.
Futures flow index signals bull pressure
The Bitcoin futures flow index read 96%, with price well above its 30‑day fair value of $117,500, is a classic “bullish mode” signal. This setup often precedes a brief cooling or digestion phase as overheated futures activity stabilizes before continuation.
Lastly, the Profit/Loss Block score remained at a maximum reading of +3, showing that most UTXOs are in profit, a condition that sustained strong risk appetite and consistent dip‑buying behavior.
Meanwhile, the short‑term holder MVRV ratio is pressing toward its +1σ band near $133,000, suggesting potential resistance as profit‑taking pressure builds. Maintaining P/L momentum above the 90th percentile will be crucial to avoid divergence and trend fatigue.
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Short‑term outlooks: A momentum grind or mean reversion for BTC?
Bitcoin’s short‑term structure presented two distinct continuation scenarios following its record weekly close above $123,000.
The first scenario favored a momentum‑based breakout, where “high prices stay higher.” In this case, Bitcoin could consolidate within a narrow range between $122,000 and $124,000, forming a high‑timeframe base as volatility compresses.
Such behavior typically precedes gradual trend expansion, allowing the market to extend its price discovery phase through a slow grind toward fresh highs. Sustained high positioning would confirm this structure as a bullish continuation rather than a distribution.
Alternatively, a mean‑reversion setup remained viable. This would involve a corrective retest toward key moving averages on the 4‑hour chart, the 50‑, 100‑, and 200‑period exponential moving averages (EMAs) aligning with a liquidity pocket between $118,500 and $120,000.
A pullback into this zone would reset short‑term leverage, rebuild demand, and maintain structural integrity as long as $118,000 is held as higher support.
Overall, the current market balance suggested consolidation within bullish strength. Whether through steady compression or a brief liquidity sweep, the broader trend bias remained upward unless momentum fractures below the mid‑$118,000 region.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.