On-chain data from CryptoQuant analysts Darkfost and Burak Kesmeci points to a strong buildup of liquidity and investor positioning that could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next major rally.
According to Darkfost, the total stablecoin supply across the crypto ecosystem has now exceeded $250 billion, with Binance alone holding nearly $50 billion in ERC-20 stablecoins, the highest level in its history. This surge in reserves signals that vast capital is parked and ready for deployment, typically a precursor to renewed buying pressure.
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which measures Bitcoin’s market cap relative to the value of stablecoins, has fallen into negative territory around -2, indicating that liquidity has grown faster than Bitcoin’s valuation. Historically, similar SSR levels have coincided with market bottoms and subsequent price rebounds, suggesting that current conditions may mark another accumulation phase.
Darkfost emphasized that “a single catalyst could unleash this liquidity into the market,” reigniting Bitcoin’s uptrend and potentially driving it toward a new all-time high.
Bitcoin Moves Off Exchanges as Self-Custody Trend Accelerates
Complementing the liquidity buildup, CryptoQuant’s Burak Kesmeci reported a dramatic increase in Bitcoin withdrawals from the MEXC exchange throughout 2025, a trend that accelerated sharply in October.
Until mid-July, the 30-day average number of withdrawal transactions stood at just 54 per day. By mid-August, that figure had surged to 1,190, and on October 31, it hit a record 1,874 withdrawals in a single day, the highest count of the year.
This spike suggests a growing move toward self-custody, as investors withdraw coins from centralized exchanges amid rising market volatility. Analysts interpret this as a bullish structural trend, as coins leaving exchanges reduce immediate selling pressure and often precede price recoveries.
A Converging Setup for Bitcoin
Taken together, the data paints a picture of latent buying power meeting tightening supply. Massive stablecoin reserves represent sidelined capital ready to enter the market, while accelerating Bitcoin withdrawals reduce circulating supply on exchanges.
If triggered by a macro or market catalyst, this combination could fuel a sharp upward breakout, echoing similar liquidity-driven rallies seen during previous Bitcoin cycles.
As Darkfost noted:
Overall sentiment remains mixed, but the liquidity foundation is stronger than ever, and the rocket fuel is already in place.