Bitcoin (BTC) is currently struggling to break free from its recent range-bound trading pattern. After dipping to a seven-month low of $82,221 in mid-November, the leading cryptocurrency has hovered close to the $90,000 mark for the past two weeks. At press time, BTC was trading at $91,084, up 1.3% in the past 24 hours.
Standard Chartered Revises Bitcoin Price Targets Downward
Amidst the ongoing volatility, British multinational bank Standard Chartered has sharply reduced its long-term price projections for Bitcoin. The banking giant now expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2025, a significant decrease from its prior forecast of $200,000. However, the bank is maintaining its long-term target of $500,000, although this projection has been delayed from 2028 to 2030.
Rejecting traditional halving-cycle models, Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick argued,
“This time really is different. We think crypto winters are a thing of the past.”
ETF Inflows to Drive Bitcoin Price, Not Corporate Accumulation
According to Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick, the revised price targets reflect “a recalibration of demand expectations” following a period of weaker ETF inflows and reduced corporate accumulation. Kendrick stated that aggressive Bitcoin buying by firms such as MicroStrategy has “run its course,” and he anticipates that “future Bitcoin price increases will effectively be driven by one leg only — ETF buying.”
ETF inflows have notably slowed, with approximately 50,000 BTC entering these funds this quarter, marking the weakest level since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year.
Political Landscape and Federal Reserve Influence
The report also highlighted the increasing political pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could potentially influence risk assets like Bitcoin. Markets are largely anticipating the Fed to lower rates by 0.25% on December 10th, though much of this expectation hinges on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance for 2025.
Kendrick suggested that the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could shift policy towards easing. Such a shift might bolster demand for “hard assets” like Bitcoin, positioning it as a hedge against inflation.
Further context on the Federal Reserve's stance can be found in the article "Why The Federal Reserve Is Fearful of Cryptocurrency and Blockchain."
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- •Trump’s National Security Strategy Skips Bitcoin and Blockchain